The Kondratieff Wave (Kondratiev Wave or K-wave) theory is proposing the existence of the extra-long, 50+ years long cycles of growth in the modern market (capitalist) economy. The theory was proposed in 1920s by Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev.

This site has a purpose to maintain the reference to the educational online resources that will allow anyone to quickly study the K-wave theory as presented in modern blogosphere and analyze the applicable charts and trends. It is also useful as a practical tool for long-term financial planning and investing.

I. Credit Cycle

1. The Great credit cycle. This article introduces the supercycle, secular credit trends, accumulation and unwinding of credit
• Historic Debt/GDP ratio sinse 1860
• Historic mortgage debt in USA
• Country-by-country credit growth in the last three decades
• Cost/benefit ratio of the credit growth
• Debt and savings rate

2. Monetary base and interest rates. The long-term trends of interest rates and monetary base in the context of K-wave

• The anomaly of 1990
• Historic changes in monetary aggregates - M1, M2 and M3
• Corporate and government interest rate trends
• Trends in money supply and yields split the credit accumulation phase into two parts
• Spike of the interest rates at the beginning of the credit unwinding phase
• Credit crunch of 1990s in Japan

II. The Seasons and the Feedback theory

1. The Seasons. The K-wave could be divided into four seasons: Spring, Summer, Autumn and Winter
• Introduction into seasons
• Stock market cycles and seasons
• Kondratyev wave and the world

2. The feedback loops

• Positive and negative feedback loops
• Vicious and virtuous cycles
• Feedback loops in Kitchin cycle
• Bifurcation points and season overlapping

III. Every Season in detail

1. Summer and the Lemming theory
• Inflation and hyperinflation
• Corporate profits during Kondratiev Summer
• Monetary base and Velocity
• The Vicious Cycle
• The Lemming theory
2. Transition to Autumn
• The Masters of the World
• Paul Volcker
• The Feds role
3. Autumn and Minsky theory
• The theory of Hyman Minsky
• The Summer legacy
• Bond market and asset prices
• Savings rate and the “Global savings glut”
• The Ponzi units
4. K-wave: the Housing Bubble and the Lemming Theory
• The secular Bull and Bear markets
• The Housing Bubble
• The Lemming Theory
• The Social vs Economic conditions
• Rising asset prices
• The feedback loop in Winter of 2007
• Estimates for the stock market
5. K-wave: The Master Bubble
• The world trade
• The call for dollars
• The patchwork for the global trade
• The case for W shaped recession

External Sources

• 1. Biography of Nikolai Kondratiev at Wikipedia
• 2. The description of Kondratieff Wave theory at Wikipedia